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ICO? Take care

ICO? Take care…..

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A Boston College research paper entitled Digital Tulips has found that fewer than half of all ICO projects survive more than 120 days after the completion of their sales of tokens to the public.

That is really scary. And this fact does not seem to be putting people off. Another $10-12 billion of ICOs will be out there during this year.

I was reflecting on the longevity of Scotcoin.

In the same way that most small businesses go bust within one to three years, it appears that ICOs ( ok it’s digital so it’s faster) go bust in 3-4 months.

It’s not surprising really. Most of them are designed as get rich quick schemes for the perpetrators with no economic or financial sense. That’s why some of the earlier coins and tokens have lasted – they have a purpose and a measurable impact, unlike their imitators. In the same way that it is said there are only 7 plots in total for literature, there may not even be 7 in crypto-currencies.

So Scotcoin, actually in existence for 5 years, is almost a granddaddy. In fact, in terms of country coins we might actually be the oldest – if anyone else knows better please let me know.

But I wanted to reflect on the words of an Economics Professor – Hyman Minsky. Being a true Keynesian myself – and believe me what we have had for a long time is NOT what Keynes said – I find Minsky’s idea of his Financial Instability Hypothesis extremely enticing. Basically he says on the economic upswing, people take greater and greater risks – until the bubble bursts and we end up back down at the bottom of the boom and bust cycle again. Sadly, Gordon Brown no more banished it than controlled it – and then made a mess of the Banks’ recapitalisation. In fact, it means we are on a treadmill we can’t get off. Digital money, espoused by Milton Friedman more than 20 years ago, has enormous attractions when all around is collapsing.

But Minsky said something very wise.

“Everyone can create money; the problem is to get it accepted.”

That’s what we are working on at Scotcoin.

 

bitcoin legislation

Whither Scotcoin

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bitcoin legislation Cryptocurrency a scam?

There have been quite a few gyrations in the Bitcoin market especially since China put the mockers on ICOs. This was then followed by Jamie Dimon – he of JPMorgan fame – saying Bitcoin was a scam. Yet today, one of the doyens of the London Gold market  – Sharps Pixley – has said they will accept Bitcoin for purchases.

Legislation surrounding Bitcoin & Digital Currency

Let’s just look at both of these. The Chinese are quite rightly saying we don’t want people to lose money through fraudulent or overhyped ICO offerings. They are also saying, if you are going to put money into stocks and shares, you have to be identifiable, so if you want to do this with crypto currencies, you will have to be identifiable as well. Personally, I don’t see why people would run away from Bitcoin because of these two eminently sensible announcements. In fact, they should enhance crypto currencies in general and Bitcoin in particular. Rather than an anonymous investment in something you don’t understand, where the principals may disappear with your cash, you can invest with confidence knowing who the other people are beside you. This is precisely why Scotcoin will be entirely AML and KYC compliant. The other thing to bear in mind is that – officially officially – nothing has been set in stone in China. There are “elections” coming up in October, and it is entirely possible that OFFICIALLY officially after these things might change.

Jamie Dimon is in my view being a bit naughty. He says “ It’s a scam”. But he also says, hey it will collapse, but maybe not until it reaches $100,000. So… is that a buy recommendation? Goldman Sachs don’t appear to have doubts – they say serious investors MUST hold some crypto currencies, if only because the growth in value has outpaced everything else by a mile. And he is after all in the business of getting his investors the best deal. Traders and market makers earn money by selling high and buying cheap, and he just may have created the last, best buying opportunity for Bitcoin. The present bounce up back above $4000 is in my view a trigger.

The Sharps Pixley announcement is way up there as far as a tipping point goes. Gold might trade $22 trillion a year but Bitcoin is already around $1 trillion. And that’s from a market not yet fully nine years old.

I have a view which is entirely personal. Bitcoin isn’t going to become the currency of choice for buying coffees and pizza. Apart from anything else the cost even after the recent fall is around £1.50 per transaction. That will only increase as its value rises. What Bitcoin MAY become is something like gold, a store of value and wealth. That leaves the field for “ currency” wide open, and Scotcoin is targeting that use. We may be “Scot” but that is not pejorative or limiting. We have holders in more than 40 countries. In fact, taking into account the diaspora of successful Scots worldwide, we all might just be on to a good thing.

If you want to help us spread the world and fund our on-going activities, go to https://scotcoinproject.com.