How the EU could get out of its present pickle – and negative interest
If you have been following what is going on over the Channel, you will know that Macron and Merkel have underwritten some more money for the whole of the EU. As ever, they don’t differentiate between the wealthy northern nations and the bankrupt southern ones, and as a result as of now the one size fits all remains in place.
Bear in mind the German Constitutional Court has already blown a massive hole below the waterline of the ECB, which may yet mean that ALL that the ECB has done in the last 10 years is ultra vires. That would spell the end not only of the EU but would also the bankruptcy of the ECB, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal etc etc. It could not be stitched back together.
The one thing that is clear from the present pandemic is that the good old US Dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. That means that the Americans – as they have always done for more than the last 100 years – have stepped up to the plate when money was needed anywhere in the world. Their present trillions of extra dollars is already keeping some countries going and they have made clear they will create trillions more if needed.
The problem in the EU is acute however. To take one example, Italy simply cannot afford to take on board any more debt, and the ECB has finally reached the point where the purchase of any more Italian issued EU notes is effectively at an end.
What Italy needs is to get out of the Euro – leaving massive losses for all concerned but especially the Germans – and return to the Lira or something like it. If Italy could issue Lira bonds which were funded ( at a lower rate than the notional Lira/Euro rate of exchange back in the day) they could be free in one bound. Sadly, of course, the EU won’t allow them to do this.
But here’s the thing. Suppose they created the Liracoin , a digital currency which worked alongside the Euro. I can practically guarantee people in Italy would stop using Euros on a day to day basis and use Liracoin. You would suddenly have the same sort of situation as pertains in China, where there is an official currency for international transactions, very tightly controlled, and effectively a lesser currency which remains in China. The Euro would be the international currency for Italy but the Liracoin would be the internal currency. And this could be repeated across all countries in the Eurozone.
Interestingly, when Scotcoin was originally created, its creator had something very similar in mind, had the Referendum been won. And there is a distinct move to country digital coin as opposed to the international likes of Bitcoin, Ethereum and so on.
So maybe, just maybe, digital currency is coming of age.
STOP PRESS: The UK Debt Management Office has just sold debt that will COST the buyers to hold. In other words, lend £100, receive no interest and in two years time you will get back LESS than £99.50. Remember, digital currency doesn’t pay interest, BUT IT ALSO DOESN’T COST YOU TO HOLD IT.
