The corona virus outbreak shows just how fragile our world is

The corona virus outbreak shows just how fragile our world is

Quite apart from the disruption that has been caused, China has printed $170BILLION of extra cash to pump into the economy. There’s no guarantee that’s enough, and in fact it’s unlikely to be. In 2008, the US Treasury printed $600 billion, and that wasn’t enough to prevent widespread bankruptcies and zombie companies. The IMF only has about $3-4 triilion available to it and the dollar derivatives and swaps are now around $18 trillion, so a real disruption (people asking for their USD back) would have a catastrophic effect on the world economy. Far from reducing reliance on dollars, the crash enhanced and strengthened its hegemony.

So – at the risk of stating the obvious – there needs to be something else that can be used if dollars start to become unavailable. I’m not for a moment suggesting that cryptos – with a current value UNDER $300 MILLION – will replace it, but if your bank started not honouring your bank card, you just might like to have some cryptos available to buy that pint of milk.

Twenty years from now

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do

I’ve had a number of interesting meetings with random people over the last couple of weeks. They were all related to different business aspects, but the one thing that came across quite clearly was the growing realisation that blockchain – and by extension, cryptocurrency – was going to be THE future.

At least two of the people I was talking to had had virtually no knowledge of blockchain until very recently, and one of them only started to look at it when I arranged to meet him a couple of days ago. If anything he was the most evangelical about it.

One of the most important aspects is how people are perceiving digital currency. I have already argued that it is now another asset class alongside stocks and shares, art, fine wine, bonds, gold, commodities and so on, and this idea is already taking hold. I had a very interesting conversation with a Polish lady who had never even heard of blockchain, but knew of Bitcoin. As soon as I explained about the asset class ( ok maybe you should only have 1% of your wealth in it) she rushed off to talk to her business manager, and splurged on a basket of cryptos. I’m not sure she has all the right ones, but hey, that’s her business. As an aside she’s already made money on them.

It remains true that if you had that 1% just in Bitcoin 5 years ago, your total portfolio would have out-performed nearly all others. Far be it from me to say it but if you had included Scotcoin in that same portfolio, you would have outperformed ALL others.

The countries, ecosystems and companies that embrace the possibilities of blockchain and crypto now are those that will inherit the future.

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.”

It is a misconception that Mark Twain said that (along with lots of other things he said)

Mark Twain did NOT say that.

The quote belongs to H. Jackson Brown’s mother. See page 13 in Brown’s 1991 book: P.S. I Love You: When Mom Wrote, She Always Saved the Best for Last.

But Twain DID say “Denial is not just a river in Egypt”

Have a great future.